- Australian analyst Michael Pizzino believes that altcoins are on the rise – and that the glory days of an altcoin season might finally be upon us.
- In his latest video, Pizzino interrogates two important charts: True Bitcoin Dominance and True Altcoin Market Cap.
- The analyst notes that both charts demonstrate trend breakouts that present bullish cases for the altcoin market.
- Pizzino points out that making early calls can be quite risky, but it also opens investors to the biggest gains if their predictions prove correct.
Altcoin season is cancelled. Altcoin season is back in business. Altcoin season is out of business.
These statements encapsulate the seesawing nature of altcoins throughout the past 12 months. While Bitcoin has dominated crypto headlines, picking up momentum to break a new all-time high earlier this year, the altcoin market has chugged along, posting solid gains but nothing particularly exciting.
With the overall crypto market ranging between bearish and bullish, analysts have tried to answer the question: where to from here?
And Aussie analyst Michael Pizzino believes that after much umming and ahhing, the community might enjoy an altcoin season in 2024.
Related: VanEck Report Claims Solana Undervalued, Can Reach 50% of Ethereum’s Market Value
“True” Altcoin Market Cap Reaches Strongest Level in Six Months
It’s been a strong week for the crypto market, with big-name projects like Solana (8%), Dogecoin (12%), Shiba (33%) and Chainlink (11%) just some of the big movers.
In his latest video, Michael Pizzino walks us through two important charts to determine if the recent gains are just a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come.
The first graph is the True Altcoin Market Capitalisation – the combined market cap of all projects besides Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins. Looking at this chart, Pizzino notes that altcoins peaked in March this year – and since then, have drawn a strong downward trendline with falling highs.
On several separate occasions, the altcoin market cap reached the top of this trendline, only to encounter resistance and fall further in value.
However, for the first time in six months, the True Altcoin Market Cap has broken above the trendline, which is a “very bullish state for the altcoin space”.
The next important resistance level for the chart is at US $480b (AU $697b), which is the current total market cap for altcoins (excluding stablecoins). According to Pizzino, if the market can hold or break this level over the next fortnight, we could well and truly be “in the very early stages of an altcoin season”.
Bitcoin Dominance Falling as Altcoin Hype Slowly Builds
The second chart Pizzino assesses is True Bitcoin Dominance, which is Bitcoin’s market cap compared to all other cryptocurrencies, minus stablecoins.
Looking at this graph affirms what most in the community already suspected – BTC has been on a tear for much of 2024, leaving most altcoins in its wake. Bitcoin dominance peaked earlier this month, reaching 63%, but over the past few weeks has fallen below a significant trendline.
According to Pizzino, if Bitcoin dominance falls below ~61%, while the overall altcoin market cap holds or grows, there’s a high chance of “significant gains in the altcoin space”.
The analyst does warn that there’s always a “chance for the altcoin buzz that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks to fizzle out”, but also notes “that’s the nature of the game…trying to be early has a higher chance of being wrong but it [also] has the greatest potential for the largest moves”.
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