- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates ongoing market fear as Bitcoin hovers under US$60K.
- Future market activity and historical patterns hint at a potential bullish surge for Bitcoin by late 2024.
- Upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and macroeconomic factors are poised to significantly influence cryptocurrency dynamics.
The crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory after days of sideways action as Bitcoin struggles to break above US$60K (AU$89.2K).
But CryptoQuant reminds traders and investors alike that the bull market is still on. The fact that BTC is moving from spot to future exchanges shows that investors are engaging in more risk taking, similar to past cycles, the analysts wrote.
They added that “reckless use of leverage by risk-taking investors” is going to bring bulls back.
Analysts from Bitfinex agree with that sentiment, writing in their latest report that they believe “Bitcoin is still on track to follow previous halving year trajectories”. They expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be “extremely bullish”, adding:
Based on historical data, either the Q3 low may be in or we have one last leg lower to find the bottom for Bitcoin.
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They also point to the overarching macroeconomic picture and the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on 17-18 September.
Key factors such as the broader macroeconomic environment and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will significantly influence future ETF flows and market dynamics for both Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Bitfinex Most analysts, roughly 75% as per a Reuters report, now expect a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed meeting.
VanEck: We’re Buyers Here
Investment mammoth and crypto enthusiast VanEck is also bullish, attributing the current mediocre price movement largely to the reversal of the Japanese carry trades, the US and German Governments’ BTC selling spree, as well as the Mt. Gox and Genesis bankruptcy creditor payouts.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets, told CNBC that all the “forced selling” is now history and we’re in a typical “seasonable pattern where Bitcoin tends to struggle in the 1-3 months after the halving, which was in April”.
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Sigel said that with all that in the past, the outlook for Bitcoin points to a recovery. This holds true no matter who wins the White House in the November election – which makes them bullish and, well, buyers.
As the market comes to grips with whatever candidate wins, we’re in for another four years of reckless fiscal policy, the history is that Bitcoin really hits a stride at that point. So, we’re buyers here. We think it recovers.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck
Source:
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