- Following Biden’s poor showing at the presidential debate, markets are murmuring about a BTC price surge in the second half of 2024 based on a stronger belief in a Trump victory.
- Donald Trump, felon and self-appointed “crypto president”, has alluded to his support for Bitcoin during his campaign, leading to perceptions he’ll boost the digital asset industry.
Is Bitcoin gonna get yuuuuuge on the expectations of a Trump election win?
This week’s Financial Times Cryptofinance newsletter said markets are increasingly talking about how a “Trump trade” could cause Bitcoin to boom in the second half of 2024.
Optimism around a BTC rally on the prospect of Donald Trump winning the US election in November has only grown since the first presidential debate on June 27, the FT report states.
The article cites Trump’s influence being based on two perceptions:
- That Trump is more ‘pro-crypto’ than Biden; and
- That Trump’s policies will make digital assets more appealing globally.
Analyst: BTC To Hit $100K By Election
Speaking to FT, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said that Trump policies that are expected to create a US deficit, higher inflation and higher US Treasury yields would affect BTC’s price, because crypto tends to correlate with some US Treasury markers.
He argues a steeper yield curve and higher break-even rates than real yields should push BTC’s price higher as it acts as a hedge against declining confidence in the US Treasury market.
A fresh all-time [high] in August is likely, then $100,000 by US election day.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered Riding the wave of Bitcoin spot ETF interest, Bitcoin reached an all-time high in March 2024, but has been trading around the US$60K (AU$88.9K) mark in recent weeks. It recently dropped below US$60K on fears of sell-side pressure from multiple sources including the Mt Gox reimbursement payments, and moves by the German Government that indicate it could soon sell its BTC holdings.
Related: Analysts Predict Bitcoin Rally: Can It Still Reach $150K by End of 2024?
New Democratic Candidate Could Change Outcome
During his campaign, Trump has made a dedicated effort to reverse his previous negative stance on crypto. He’s declared he’d be the “crypto president”, wooed funders from crypto/tech spheres and met with large crypto mining firms at his Mar-a-Lago property.
Related: Trump Says Remaining BTC Should Be Mined in USA, Throws Support Behind Miners
After stumbling and blinking his way through the debate in late June, there have been widespread calls for Biden to drop out of the presidential race. What Joe Biden described as “just a bad night”, many political pundits called a disaster.
The so-called ‘Trump trade’ on Bitcoin is predicated on Biden being Trump’s opponent, according to the FT.
That suggests that if Biden remains in the race, bitcoin bulls will be energised. If he exits and the new candidate is seen as having a chance against Trump, bitcoin could remain in the doldrums.
Philip Stafford, Financial Times Cryptofinance newsletter Forbes reports that Biden’s chances of removing himself from the race have soared in recent days. There’s now a 56% chance he’ll drop out, based on betting data from prediction platform Polymarket. And bettors have placed over US$27 million on Trump winning (representing 63% odds compared to 15% for Biden).
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