Analysts Reveal These Metrics Indicate Larger Move for Crypto


  • Despite market volatility and dips below US$60K, Glassnode sees strong investor profitability with many experiencing a 2x return on investment.
  • Glassnode’s analysis highlights a high unrealised profit to loss ratio, indicating a bullish sentiment and a potential upcoming major market move.
  • Swissblock anticipates a recovery in July for Bitcoin, supported by positive ETF flows, seasonal trends, despite potential sell-side pressures.

Amid continued sideways action for Bitcoin – apart from a few dips below US$60K (AU$89.4K) – experts are divided about where to next. Analysts at Glassnode said the “Bitcoin market is in an interesting spot”, which is based on the fact that a large number of investors are profitable, many have seen a 2x on their investment.

Related: Bitcoin Dips Below $60K as Fed Chair Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

With what they call “heavily compressed volatility measures” the analysts believe there is a bigger move on the cards.

Investor Profitability Remains Strong, Unrealised Profits Indicate Potential Upswing

Glassnode said as Bitcoin prices fell to the US$60k range, investor sentiment turned fearful and bearish amid market stagnation. However, the MVRV Ratio (market-value-to-realised-value) indicates that average investor profitability is strong, with a 2x profit multiple, marking a transition between “Enthusiastic” and “Euphoric” bull market phases.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio, source: Glassnode

“The average coin in profit is holding an unrealized gain of +$41.3k, with a cost basis of approximately $19.4k. The average coin in loss is holding an unrealized loss of -$5.3k, and has a cost basis of approximately $66.1k.”

The MVRV ratio is a key metric in crypto that provides insights into market dynamics and investor behaviour, helping to evaluate the valuation of a cryptocurrency through its measurement and implications.

Glassnode posits that the high ratio of unrealised profit to loss indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the market, reminiscent of previous euphoric phases that often precede market peaks. They added that the March ATH following ETF approvals highlights this as a potentially speculative period similar to past bull market peaks

Swissblock Says July Could Be a Strong Month for BTC

After a bearish June, analysts at Swissblock reckon July might see a bit of relief for investors, with a historic return of 9.6%. This forecast comes despite the Mt. Gox repayments and other potential events which may spook investors.

“Despite potential sell-side pressure from the repayments to Mt. Gox creditors and the consequent FUD created from the uncertainty it creates for the investors, July seemed to guard a good omen.”

According to the analysts solid US ETF flows, positive seasonal trends and improved liquidity add to the bullish outlook.

Related: CryptoQuant: BTC Miner Capitulation May Signal Bottom

Bitcoin Speedometers, source: Swissblock

Nevertheless, immediate metrics still show bearish sentiment, with bearish price momentum, neutral onchain fundamentals and relatively high market risk, as seen in the speedometer above.



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