- Bitcoin has fallen 11.3% over the month, signalling potential end to the bull market high.
- Analysts foresee a further drop to US$50K due to increased market fear and continued selling pressures.
- Influential factors include high interest rates, major Bitcoin sales, and structural market changes.
Over the past month Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have seen a lot of downward movement.
BTC has lost 11.3%, going from almost US$72K (AU$108.3K) in early June to below US$60K (AU$90.3K) over the weekend. At the time of writing, one BTC trades hands for US$60,888 (AU$91,586).
Related: Gensler Dismisses Cuban’s Crypto Election Warning: “I Don’t Speak About Elections”
With that price momentum the question on everyone’s lips is: have we reached the Bull market high for this cycle?
Price May be Headed to US$50K: Analysts
Well, some analysts believe the pain is not over yet. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, we may see a lot lower prices just yet.
In a research note shared on X, the analysts said they believe that BTC could fall to as low as US$50K (AU$75.2K) amid returning fears in the crypto market.
10x advised its subscribers to ‘focus on risk management’, as that is the main difference between retail investors and institutions.
Bitcoin prices are still relatively high, but this could change soon. This is the time to make tough decisions. Only if we sell at high levels can we buy lower and come out ahead.
10x Research In another note, the analysts point to the many reasons why the market is red: Mt. Gox sales, government confiscations of BTC (Germany US$3bn, US$400mn), and several large wallets and miners selling. Yet, they also highlighted that there might be more than what is plainly obvious:
There appears to be a structural factor hitting the market that could have more profound consequences, leading to deeper declines before a rebound from lower levels might occur.
10x Research ETC Group Head of Research Weighs in
André Dragosch, Head of Research at ETC Group chimed in and agreed that we could see more sideways action for longer. Dragosch told German BTC Echo that he believes US recession fears are driving the recent sell-off.
Additionally, he pointed to the Fed’s stance on interest rates, saying given the high rates it’s a surprise that Bitcoin had such a good run in 2024.
But, Dragosch also believes in the long-term outlook for BTC, with something of a super-cycle heading our way, based on a delayed halving impact and a potential shift in the Fed’s interest policy for the end of 2024.
Related: Bitcoin Hits My Target! What’s Next? A Deep Dive
Ben Cowen: Bitcoin Dominance to go Higher
Crypto analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, who doesn’t get tired of pointing out BTC’s dominance, said he disagrees with a narrative that Bitcoin’s dominance has come to an end.
In the series of tweets Ben says he believes BTC dominance will continue to rise based on historical trends showing ALT/BTC pairs as oscillators, the resilience of BTC dominance above its support band, and the expectation that significant gains for altcoins typically occur in post-halving years, likely in 2025.
He also cites the influence of macroeconomic factors, particularly the need for Fed rate cuts or QE for a shift in dominance.
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