- US spot Ethereum ETFs are anticipated to start trading on July 2, following a VanEck filing.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects US$15 billion in net inflows to Ethereum ETPs within the first 18 months.
- Analysts predict the ETF launch will boost Ether’s short-term price, with investor focus shifting from Bitcoin to Ether.
Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to launch soon in the United States. Bloomberg analysts have chalked in July 2 for a trading start, which is seven days after a VanEck filing concerning these funds.
Interestingly, with the Spot BTC ETFs we saw trading commence exactly seven days after a VanEck filing.
Related: VanEck Files for Ethereum ETF, Could Start Trading Next Week
But what impact might these funds have on ETH? A significant one, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan.
CIO Optimistic About ETF Inflows
In a post on platform X, the CIO said he believes the money coming into these funds over the following months will be substantial.
Ethereum ETPs will attract $15 billion in net flows in their first 18 months on the market.
Matt Hougan Hougan expects investor allocations to BTC and ETH exchange-traded products (ETPs) to align with their market caps: BTC holds 74% of the market at US$1,266bn (AU$1,905bn), while ETH comprises 26% at US$432bn (AU$650bn).
Besides considering factors like market cap comparisons between BTC and ETH, Hougan thinks investment in Bitcoin ETPs, and the structure of international crypto ETP markets will drive adoption.
His projection is based on the current investment distribution, expected growth in Bitcoin ETPs, and the conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust. Hougan adjusts his estimates considering the absence of a staking-related “carry trade” in Ethereum, similar to what exists for Bitcoin, leading to a conservative inflow estimate for Ethereum ETPs.
I don’t expect the flows to come in a straight line. In fact, I think there is a good chance we see net outflows from the ETH ETP complex at points after their initial launch, as traders who played the discount-arbitrage game aggressively redeem out of ETHE.
Matt Hougan ETF Launch to Drive Short-Term ETH Price: Analysts
Meanwhile, analysts at crypto exchange BloFin believe that the ETF launch will have severe short-term ramifications for the price of Ether as investors shift their focus from Bitcoin to ETH. In a note shared with CryptoSlate, citing “options skewness, portfolio adjustments, and whale holdings”, the analysts said ETH is expected to see price increases.
The relative strength of BTC has lasted for several months, but investors are changing their views: they seem to believe that the performance of ETH will strengthen for some time with the listing of the spot ETH ETFs.
BloFin Related: Over Half of Japanese Investment Managers to Adopt Cryptocurrencies, Survey Reveals
BloFin’s analysis reveals a recent shift in investor sentiment, now favouring Ethereum over Bitcoin in the short term, driven by Ethereum’s potential for higher returns in a lower interest rate environment and the expected approval of these spot Ethereum ETFs.
Additionally, on-chain data indicates that ETH whales are holding onto their assets, further boosting Ethereum’s bullish outlook relative to Bitcoin.
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