- Bitcoin’s price surged over 20% in a month, driven by high inflows and attention to Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Technical analysis presents mixed signals; Ali’s TD Sequential indicator suggests a short-term sell signal for Bitcoin, while CryptoCon’s Alternate Theory predicts a price peak in May 2025.
- Ric Edelman of DACFP projects Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows to exceed USD $150bn by the end of 2025, based on mathematical analysis.
Bitcoin has had an incredible run in the past few weeks, going up in price well over 20% in a month. This comes after the Spot Bitcoin ETFs had initially disappointed but have since been attracting record attention and inflows. Amid hundreds of millions in daily inflows and fee cuts to the Spot ETFs it doesn’t look like the rally will slow down anytime soon.
However, turning to technical analysis for pointers on our current position might help here. Technical and on-chain analyst Ali (ali_charts) posted an alert saying that according to the TD Sequential indicator, there’s a sell signal on Bitcoin’s daily chart, suggesting that its price might experience a short-term decline over the next one to four days.
Ali notes that the indicator’s track record of accuracy in recent months increases confidence in the current signal.
Short-term v. Long-term
However, while Ali may be absolutely correct with this prediction short-term, there could always be a correction, or rather we should expect it. It’s much more important what your long-term views are.
Technical Analyst CryptoCon wrote an insightful post on a related topic, the Alternate Theory which suggests Bitcoin’s price cycles are moving ahead by six months. According to the trader, a peak is predicted in May 2025, in contrast to the traditional Halving Cycles Theory that forecasts a top in late 2025.
This theory gains traction as Bitcoin approaches yearly highs, suggesting a possible change in market behaviour.
Key to the Alternate Theory becoming dominant lies in Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs sooner than expected, specifically after May 2024, which would signify an important shift from established patterns.
CryptoCon says that until such price action occurs, the traditional theory remains the standard, but advises to stay alert to potential changes.
DACFP’s Founder with Bold but Mathematically Sound Prediction
Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP) revealed a very bullish scenario when he spoke to CNBC during the Exchange ETF conference in Miami Beach.
Edelman forecasts that by the end of 2025, inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs will exceed USD $150bn (AUD $230bn), up from the current USD $5bn (AUD $7.7bn). This projection is based on the fact that individual and independent investment advisors, who manage around USD $8tn (AUD $12.2tn), are expected to allocate an average of 2.5% of their assets to ETFs.
According to Edelman, industry surveys show that three-quarters of these advisors intend to make such allocations. The calculation leading to the USD $150bn figure only includes independent advisors, without considering potential additional inflows from larger financial institutions.
Edelman suggests that this significant increase in inflows is achievable given the large asset base and the stated interest from advisors.